The media didn't understand this story and as a result many Americans have written it off as a scare that has past. The H1N1 is just getting going and could team up with our usual flu in the fall to create some real problems.

 As fears of a major outbreak grew, officials in Hong Kong reported the third known instance of the virus becoming resistant to Tamiflu.

The Government predicts that by the end of August, there will be 100,000 new cases a day. If the same one-in-2,500 rate holds, there would be 40 deaths a day.

 Let's see. There is no natural resistence to this flu so lets assume that 2/3 of Americans get the H1N1 virus. At a death rate of 1/2,500 that equals 80,000 dead Americans. That is about twice the number of people that die each year from auto accidents. We don't stop driving after each accident, but people do stay away from work while the flu is going around, resulting in lower productivity and ultimately lower tax receipts.

Then let's think about what happens if the H1N1 mutates into something a bit more serious, like a death toll of 1/1,000? 300,000 - 600,000 deaths over the 3 year is not out of the question.